Which country will emerge better from the crisis, Germany, England or the United States
- Posted by Marc on May 24th, 2009 filed in economy
Us personal consumption as % of GDP (1960-2008, source: contraryinvestor.com).
When I look at the macroeconomic data so similar between the United States and England, I wonder how really gives the impression that the Anglo-Saxon economic model, very good in many ways, has created some big imbalances in macroeconomic for many years. Both in England and America match exactly the same imbalances, savings rates close to 0 or negative, huge debts both public and private, excessive current account deficit, growth based on a very high private consumption financed by debt.
Germany exported and save more, and consume less, (source: FT).
Instead, the German economy has some very sound fundamentals. Of course they are suffering a lot because it is the world’s leading exporter, but it is an economy that saves, which is very productive, which was not too much debt, and has had no housing bubble. The only negative point is that its bankers have sunk to all inexplicably leverages, and they have destroyed his banks.
When everything calms down, I think that the German economy will recover soon and may grow at higher rates than US and UK economies.
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August 22nd, 2009 at 9:14 pm
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